Decoding the Cipher: Imran Khan’s Allegations of US Involvement in Regime Change
Former Prime Minister Imran Khan has long cited a cipher as evidence of a US-led conspiracy to remove him from power. However, insider accounts reveal that the document, far from being a smoking gun, contains an 11-point summary of discussions, with nine points addressing trade and human smuggling, and only two points interpreted as threats.
What the Cipher Actually Contains
The cipher reportedly summarizes a discussion between US State Department official Donald Lu and Pakistan’s ambassador. The conversation took place at a farewell lunch attended by officials from both nations. Topics ranged from trade issues, such as Pakistan’s rice exports to the US, to the state of bilateral relations.
The two points that Khan used to frame his conspiracy narrative involve Lu’s response to queries about Pakistan’s approach to the Biden Administration. Lu reportedly expressed dissatisfaction with Pakistan’s criticism of the US and its perceived support for the Taliban, warning that rebuilding relations would require time and effort.
Timeline of Events
The cipher was received by Pakistan’s Foreign Office on March 8, 2022, the same day opposition parties submitted a no-confidence motion against Khan. It was forwarded to Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi and subsequently to the prime minister on March 9.
Khan reportedly viewed the cipher as an opportunity to build a narrative. By March 12, he had shared it with journalists, claiming it was evidence of external interference. On March 13, then-COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa reviewed the cipher and dismissed it as routine.
Contradictory Developments
Despite allegations of US interference, Donald Lu continued to participate in events organized by Pakistan’s Embassy, including a virtual meeting on March 16. Moreover, US officials attended the OIC Foreign Ministers’ Conference in Islamabad later that month, with the Pakistani government facilitating their visit.
Attempts to Secure Military Support
Between March 14 and 23, Khan reportedly sent three ministers to offer General Bajwa an extension in his tenure, which was declined. After these overtures failed, Khan sought military mediation to persuade opposition parties to withdraw their no-confidence motion, but his proposal for early elections was also rejected.
The National Security Committee’s Stance
On March 27, the National Security Committee reviewed the cipher. Military leadership, including the services chiefs and the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, deemed the document harmless. However, Khan used the same day to launch a public narrative, presenting the cipher as proof of a US-led regime change conspiracy during a rally in Islamabad.
Differing Perspectives Within PTI
Even within Khan’s inner circle, skepticism about US involvement exists. Former cabinet member Shafqat Mehmood recently acknowledged in an interview that the US was not behind the fall of Khan’s government. He suggested that political narratives often prioritize public appeal over factual accuracy.
The Bigger Picture
The cipher saga underscores the complex interplay of politics, diplomacy, and public perception. While Khan’s claims have resonated with his supporters, the document itself and the surrounding events suggest a far less dramatic reality, rooted in diplomatic grievances rather than foreign intervention.
