As the semifinals of the 2025 Champions Trophy inch closer, Group B sits on a knife-edge with three teams still in contention for the two remaining spots. Australia and South Africa hold the upper hand in the race for the semifinals, while Afghanistan remains in contention following their stunning win over England, who are the only confirmed team to be knocked out of the competition.
With all three teams still having a game left—Australia vs. Afghanistan (Feb 28) and England vs. South Africa (Mar 1)—any of the three teams could make the knockout round. Here is how things stand right now:
| Team | Matches Played | Wins | Losses | No Result | Points | Net Run Rate (NRR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +2.140 |
| Australia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | +0.475 |
| Afghanistan | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -0.990 |
| England | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -0.305 |
South Africa and Australia kicked off their campaigns with dominant victories—South Africa against Afghanistan and Australia against England. Their head-to-head clash was washed out, leaving both teams with three points. Afghanistan, after defeating England, moved to two points, keeping their hopes alive.
Champions Trophy Semifinal Qualification Scenarios from Group B
A victory for either Australia or South Africa will confirm their spot in the top four. However, if Afghanistan stuns Australia and England upsets South Africa, net run rate could become the deciding factor.
- If Australia and South Africa both win: They qualify outright with five points each.
- If Afghanistan beats Australia and South Africa wins: South Africa (5) and Afghanistan (4) go through.
- If Afghanistan and England win: Afghanistan (4) will qualify, while South Africa’s fate will hinge on net run rate.
- If Australia vs. Afghanistan is washed out: Australia will qualify with four points, while South Africa could still advance with a strong enough net run rate, even if they lose to England.
For Afghanistan to reach the semis, they must beat Australia and hope South Africa suffers a heavy defeat against England. If Australia vs. Afghanistan is abandoned, Afghanistan will need England to thrash South Africa by an extraordinary margin—something that seems unlikely given South Africa’s superior net run rate.
Barring an unexpected collapse, South Africa appears almost certain to progress. Even if they lose, only an extraordinary margin of defeat combined with an Afghanistan victory could push them out of the tournament. Australia, however, faces more uncertainty. A loss could leave them vulnerable, especially if South Africa plays last and knows exactly what’s required to advance.
