Professor Allan Lichtman, a Harvard scholar teaches history at the HARDVARD University, Washington, was among a couple students expected President Donald Trump’s surprise success in 2016.
Covid-19 pandemic, which has already killed virtually 170,000 Americans and infected 5.37 million, is averting both Trump and Biden from running a full-fledged election campaign. The gap has been filled by the electronic media, with the cyber world taking the lead.
Although in 2016, most opinion polls did not see Trump’s ending, the absence of different means that to measure voters’ inclination has hyperbolic the importance of surveys and election forecasts.
Lichtman uses a 13-point measurement scale to predict elections and key factors on this scale strength of the economy, incumbency, contests, policy changes, scandals, social unrest and therefore the personal attractiveness of a candidate.
In an interview on a well-known radio show, The Morning Show with Kate Archer Kent, Lichtman explained that whereas typical polls target candidates, he concentrates on the record of the incumbent party. If six or additional of the relevant factors favor the incumbent party, it stays within the White House.
Trump’s “failed response to several crises that have arisen in 2020 has resulted within the most unexpected and dramatic reversal of fortune within the history of the US”,
“In the matter of many months, additional keys have turned against the incumbent Trump. With seven negative keys against him, Trump may be a foreseen loser in his bid for re-election in November.